ITEM:		ACTION ITEMS
15.	RECEIVE AND CONFIRM WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2007 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2008
Meeting Date:			May 21, 2007	Budgeted:	N/A
From:			David A. Berger,	Program/	N/A
			General Manager	Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			Darby Fuerst	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Approval: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2007, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for the upcoming water year.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2007, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resources System (MPWRS) totaled 31,550 acre-feet or 84% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 15-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 15-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,530 acre-feet and usable aquifer storage totaled 30,020 acre-feet. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS -- rainfall, runoff, and number of adult steelhead recorded at San Clemente Dam, and California American Water (CAW) monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Ground Water Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and District -- are shown in Exhibit 15-C and 15-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2007 and all of WY 2008 is shown in Exhibit 15-E. These projections include the water needs of both CAW customers and non-CAW water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2007 is 9,226 acre-feet. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2007 is 17,493 acre-feet. This projection is based on the maximum annual production amount for the CAW main system from the Carmel River Basin directed by the SWRCB in Order No. WR 95-10 (11,285 acre-feet), the maximum annual production amount for CAW from the coastal subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin specified by the Court as a result of the Seaside Basin adjudication (3,504 acre-feet), and the production that was reported for non CAW users in the MPWRS in WY 2006 (2,740 acre-feet).

As shown in Exhibit 15-E, the total amount of water needed to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2007 and all of WY 2008 is 26,719 acre-feet. Given the current usable storage estimate of 31,550 acre-feet, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2007 and begin WY 2008 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no mandatory water demand reductions i.e. rationing actions, are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources, which are outside of the scope of this physical availability analysis.

Community Water Demand: For WY 2007, as of May 1, 2007, CAW had produced 7,127 acre-feet of water from its sources in the MPWRS to serve customers in its main system. This amount of production is 179 acre-feet under the year-to-date at month-end production target (7,306 acre-feet) that had been set for CAW’s main system based on SWRCB Order 95-10 and the Seaside Groundwater Basin adjudication decision. Specifically, CAW’s year-to-date production from the Carmel River Basin was 5,600 acre-feet or 106 acre-feet less than the year-to-date production target of 5,706 acre-feet. Similarly, CAW’s year-to-date production from the coastal subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin was 1,527 acre-feet or 73 acre-feet less than the year-to-date production target of 1,600 acre-feet.

Seaside Groundwater Basin Yield: It should be noted that this forecast is based on an assumption that CAW can produce up to 14,789 acre-feet each year from its sources in the MPWRS to serve the customers in its main system. This limit is based on the maximum that CAW is allowed to produce from the Carmel River Basin (11,285 acre-feet per year) under SWRCB Order 95-10 and the maximum that CAW has been allocated to produce from the coastal subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin (3,504 acre-feet) in the Seaside Basin adjudication (California American Water v. City of Seaside, Monterey County Superior Court No. M 66343). Under this decision, CAW could produce more water from the coastal subareas by acquiring the production rights from other pumpers in the basin, utilizing “carryover credits”, or utilizing “stored water credits”.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008 period.

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

EXHIBITS

15-A Map of the MPWRS

15-B MPWRS Water Storage Conditions

15-C MPWMD Water Supply Status -- May 1, 2007

15-D Monthly CAW Diversions from Carmel River and Seaside Ground Water Basins

15-E Derivation of Water Rationing Triggers for the MPWRS for WY 2007

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