ITEM:		ACTION ITEMS
22.	RECEIVE AND CONFIRM WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2010 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2011
Meeting Date:			May 17, 2010	Budgeted:	N/A
From:			Darby Fuerst,	Program/	N/A
			General Manager	Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			Darby Fuerst	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Review: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2010, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for use during the upcoming water year.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2010, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resource System (MPWRS) totaled 33,050 acre-feet or 88% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 22-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 22-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,700 acre-feet and usable aquifer storage totals 31,350 acre-feet. Note that the storage summary does not include usable storage in the Northern Inland and Laguna Seca Subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS -- rainfall, runoff, and number of adult steelhead recorded at San Clemente Dam, and California American Water (Cal-Am) monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and Court -- are shown in Exhibit 22-C and 22-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2010 and all of WY 2011 is shown in Exhibit 22-E. These projections include the water needs of both Cal-Am customers and non Cal-Am water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2010 is 9,175 acre-feet. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2011 is 16,808 acre-feet. This projection is based on the maximum annual production amount for the Cal-Am main system from the Carmel River Basin directed by the SWRCB in Order WR 2009-0060 (10,429 acre-feet in WY 2010 and WY 2011), the maximum annual production amount for Cal-Am from the Seaside Groundwater Basin specified by the Court as a result of the Seaside Basin adjudication and amended by the Seaside Watermaster on December 2, 2009 (3,829 acre-feet in WY 2010 and 3,333 acre-feet in WY 2011), and the maximum production amount for non Cal-Am users in the MPWRS specified in the District’s Water Allocation Program (3,046 acre-feet).

As shown in Exhibit 22-E, the total amount of water needed to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2010 and all of WY 2011 is 25,983 acre-feet. Given the current usable storage estimate of 33,050 acre-feet, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2010 and begin WY 2011 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no mandatory water demand reductions, i.e., rationing actions, are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources or regulatory restrictions.

Additional information will be presented at the May 17, 2010 Board meeting regarding which conservation or rationing stage is needed at this time to achieve the reductions in Cal-Am diversions from the Carmel River specified in SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060. Note that all water users within the District are presently under Stage 1 Water Conservation which prohibits water waste and all non-essential uses of water.

Community Water Demand: For WY 2010, as of May 1, 2010, Cal-Am had produced 6,231 acre-feet of water from its sources in the MPWRS to serve its customers. This amount of production is 767 acre-feet under the year-to-date at month-end production target (6,998 acre-feet) that had been set for Cal-Am based on SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060 and the Seaside Groundwater Basin adjudication decision.

MPWRS Yield: It should be noted that this forecast is based on an assumption that Cal-Am can produce up to 14,258 acre-feet in WY 2010 and 13,762 acre-feet in WY 2011 from its sources in the MPWRS to serve its customers. This limit is based on the maximum amount that Cal-Am is allowed to produce from the Carmel River Basin (10,429 acre-feet in WY 2010 and WY 2011) under SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060 and the maximum amounts that Cal-Am has been allocated to produce from the Coastal Subareas (3,087 acre-feet) and from the Laguna Seca Subarea (246 acre-feet) of the Seaside Groundwater Basin in the Seaside Basin adjudication in WY 2010 and WY 2011 (California American Water v. City of Seaside, Monterey County Superior Court No. M 66343). Note that Cal-Am is allowed to produce an additional 496 acre-feet from the Coastal Subareas of the Seaside Basin in WY 2010 because of “carryover credits” that it accrued in WY 2009.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2010 through September 30, 2011 period.

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

EXHIBITS

22-A Map of the MPWRS

22-B MPWRS Water Storage Conditions

22-C MPWMD Water Supply Status -- May 1, 2010

22-D Monthly Cal-Am Diversions from Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins

22-E Derivation of Water Rationing Triggers for the MPWRS for WY 2010

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