ITEM:		ACTION ITEM
15.	RECEIVE AND CONFIRM WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2012 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2013
Meeting Date:			May 21, 2012	Budgeted:	N/A
From:			David J. Stoldt,	Program/	N/A
			General Manager	Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			David J. Stoldt	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Review: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2012, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for use during the upcoming water year.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2012, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resource System (MPWRS) totaled 30,910 acre-feet (AF) or 82% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 15-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 15-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,700 AF and usable aquifer storage totals 29,210 AF. Note that the storage summary does not include usable storage in the Northern Inland and Laguna Seca Subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS -- rainfall, runoff, and number of adult steelhead recorded at San Clemente Dam, and California American Water (Cal-Am) monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and Court -- are shown in Exhibit 15-C and 15-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2012 and all of WY 2013 is shown in Exhibit 15-E. These projections include the water needs of both Cal-Am customers and non Cal-Am water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2013 is 8,616 AF. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2013 is 16,049 AF. This projection is based on the maximum annual production amount for the Cal-Am main system from the Carmel River Basin directed by the SWRCB in Order WR 2009-0060 (10,308 AF in WY 2012 and 10,187 AF in WY 2013), the maximum annual production amount for Cal-Am from the Seaside Groundwater Basin specified by the Court as a result of the Seaside Basin adjudication and amended by the Seaside Watermaster on November 30, 2011 (2,848 AF in WY 2012 and 2,816 AF in WY 2013), and the maximum production amount for non Cal-Am users in the MPWRS specified in the District’s Water Allocation Program (3,046 AF).

As shown in Exhibit 15-E, the total amount of water needed on May 1 to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2012 and all of WY 2013 is 24,665 AF. Given the current usable storage estimate of 30,910 AF, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2012 and begin WY 2013 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no mandatory water demand reductions, i.e., rationing actions, are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources or regulatory restrictions.

Note that all water users within the District are presently under Stage 1 Water Conservation which prohibits water waste and all non-essential uses of water.

Community Water Demand: For WY 2012, as of May 1, 2012, Cal-Am had produced 6,244 AF of water from its sources in the MPWRS to serve its customers. This amount of production is 214 AF under the year-to-date at month-end production target (6,458 acre-feet) that had been set for Cal-Am based on SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060 and the Seaside Groundwater Basin adjudication decision.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013 period.

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

EXHIBITS

15-A Map of the Monterey Peninsula Water Resources System (MPWRS)

15-B Water Storage Conditions, MPWRS

15-C MPWMD Water Supply Status -- May 1, 2012

15-D California American Water Production Distributed by Associated Water Rights: Water Year 2012

15-E Derivation of Water Rationing Triggers for the MPWRS for Water Year 2012

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