ITEM:		ACTION ITEM
14.	RECEIVE AND CONFIRM WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2017 -- SEPTEMBER 30, 2018 -- ADOPT RESOLUTION 2017-08 TO AMEND RATIONING TABLE (XV-4)
Meeting Date:			May 15, 2017	Budgeted:	N/A
From:			David J. Stoldt,	Program/	N/A
			General Manager	Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			Jonathan Lear	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Review: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: This action does not constitute a project as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines section 15378.

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2017, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for use during the upcoming water year.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2017, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resource System (MPWRS) totaled 32,290 acre-feet (AF) or 86% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 14-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 14-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,670 AF and usable aquifer storage totals 27,500 AF. Note that the storage summary does not include usable storage in the Northern Inland and Laguna Seca Subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS – rainfall and runoff recorded at San Clemente Dam and California American Water (Cal-Am) monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and Court -- are shown in Exhibit 14-C and 14-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2017 and all of WY 2018 is shown in Exhibit 14-E. These projections include the water needs of both Cal-Am customers and non Cal-Am water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2017 is 5,633 AF. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2018 is 10,130 AF. These projections are based on the maximum annual production amount for the Cal-Am main system from the Carmel River Basin directed by the SWRCB in Order WR 2016-0016 (8,310 AF in WY 2017 and WY 2018), the maximum annual production amount for Cal-Am from the Seaside Groundwater Basin specified by the Court as a result of the Seaside Basin adjudication (2,251 AF in WY 2017 and 1,820 AF in WY 2018), and the maximum production amount for non Cal-Am users in the MPWRS specified in the District’s Water Allocation Program (3,046 AF).

As shown in Exhibit 14-E, the total amount of water needed on May 1 to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2017 and all of WY 2018 is 20,755 AF. Given the current usable storage estimate of 32,290 AF, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2017 and begin WY 2018 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no mandatory water demand reductions, i.e., rationing actions, are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources or regulatory restrictions.

Note that all water users within the District are presently under Stage 1 Water Conservation which prohibits water waste and all non-essential uses of water.

Community Water Demand: For WY 2017, as of May 1, 2017, Cal-Am had produced 5,976 AF of water from its sources in the MPWRS. This amount of production is 362 AF over the year-to-date at month-end production target that had been set for Cal-Am based on SWRCB Order WR 2016-0016 and the Seaside Groundwater Basin adjudication decision. However through April 2017, Cal-Am and MPWMD have banked 2,067 AF of water in WY 2017. This additional water is more than sufficient to make up the gap between forecasted and actual production in the remainder of WY 2017.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2017 through September 30, 2018 period and adopt Resolution 2017-08 to amend Rationing Table (XV-4).

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

EXHIBITS

14-A Map of the Monterey Peninsula Water Resources System (MPWRS)

14-B Water Storage Conditions, MPWRS

14-C MPWMD Water Supply Status -- May 1, 2017

14-D California American Water Production vs. CDO and Adjudication to Date: Water Year 2017

14-E Derivation of Water Rationing Triggers for the MPWRS for the Remainder of 2017 Water Year and all of 2018 Water Year

14-F Draft Resolution 2017-08

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