DISCUSSION ITEM
15.	PRESENTATION OF UPDATED WATER DEMAND FORECASTS RELATED TO ASSOCIATION OF MONTEREY BAY AREA GOVERNMENT 2018 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST AND REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION PLAN: 2014-2023, AND INCLUSION OF 2019 WATER YEAR
Meeting Date:		January 23, 2020	Budgeted:	N/A
From:		David J. Stoldt	Program/
		General Manager	Line Item No.:	N/A
Prepared By:		David J. Stoldt	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Approval: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: Action does not constitute a project as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines section 15378.

SUMMARY:  At its September 16, 2019 meeting, the Board accepted a report titled “Supply and Demand for Water on the Monterey Peninsula”, which was Exhibit 9-A of the Board packet. The report has now been available 4 months and has been reviewed by members of the public, local organizations, and state agencies. While now publicly vetted, only three sets of comments were received: (a) California American Water provided a comment letter October 15, 2019, (b) The Coalition of Peninsula Businesses provided letters September 15, 2019 and September 24, 2019. All three comment letters argued that the findings in the report contradict those of the California Public Utilities Commission, but did not provide any substantive alternate assumptions or facts. The District’s General Manager has encouraged the parties to provide their own forecast of growth and/or market absorption of water demand, but they have failed to do so.

At the November 14, 2019 Coastal Commission hearing former Pacific Grove mayor Bill Kampe did raise two substantive issues regarding the report: (a) pre-Cease and Desist Order (CDO) market absorption of water demand may have been constrained in some jurisdictions due to a lack of water allocation, and (b) new statewide focus on housing will require water.

Additionally, subsequent to the release of the report the 2019 water year was completed, providing an additional data point on current customer demand.

This agenda item provides an update intended to address three items:

1. What is average current demand with the additional water year in the data?

2. What water will be required to meet future housing needs?

3. What might be the market absorption of water based on an objective third-party growth forecast?

As a result, certain figures or tables from the September 2019 Supply and Demand for Water on the Monterey Peninsula report were updated and presented to the District’s Water Demand Committee at its December 17, 2019 meeting. At the request of the Committee Chair the report has been updated and is included as Exhibit 15-A, attached.

EXHIBIT

15-A Supply and Demand for Water on the Monterey Peninsula – Revised

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