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ITEM: |
ACTION
ITEM |
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17. |
CONSIDER
ADOPTION DISTRICT’S 2022 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST |
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Meeting
Date: |
September 19, 2022 |
Budgeted: |
N/A |
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From: |
David J.
Stoldt, |
Program/ |
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General
Manager |
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Prepared
By: |
David J.
Stoldt |
Cost Estimate: |
N/A |
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General Counsel Review: N/A |
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Committee Recommendation: N/A |
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CEQA Compliance: This action does not constitute a project
as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines Section
15378. |
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SUMMARY: Attached as Exhibit 17-A
is a technical memorandum on supply and demand in the the District going
forward. It is based on District testimony in proceeding A.21-11-024 at the
California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). It relies on the 2022 AMBAG
Regional Growth Forecast. Using
a fully-vetted third-party growth forecast is a very objective way for
projecting water demand increase. AMBAG implemented an employment-driven
forecast model for the first time in the 2014 forecast and contracted with the
Population Reference Bureau (PRB) to test and apply the model again for the
2018 Regional Growth Forecast (RGF). To ensure the reliability of the
population projections, PRB compared the employment driven model results with
results from a cohort-component forecast, a growth trend forecast, and the most
recent forecast published by the California Department of Finance (DOF). All
four models resulted in similar population growth trends. As a result of these
reliability tests, AMBAG and PRB chose to implement the employment-driven model
again for the 2022 Regional Growth Forecast.
Houses
nor lots use water, people do. The portion of the AMBAG Regional Growth
Forecast that forecasts population captures that water demand for residential
purposes. Hence, the housing envisioned for Legal Lots of Record or within Pebble
Beach is affiliated with the population growth forecast.
Similarly,
economic growth is captured in the AMBAG Regional Growth Forecast by the growth
in jobs. Both Cal-Am[1] and the
District have utilized job growth as a proxy for non-residential water demand
growth. Hence, the commercial growth envisioned for Legal Lots of Record,
within Pebble Beach, or due to increased tourism is affiliated with the growth
in the jobs forecast.
Three
years of pre-Covid water consumption patterns were mapped to recent five-year
historical water production, thereby capturing production (also can be termed
“water supply required” to serve the system) by jurisdiction and by
residential/non-residential use. Then the forecast residential water production
demand is based on the third-party AMBAG population forecast and the forecast
non-residential water demand is based on the AMBAG commercial jobs growth
forecast. This approach is a rigorous approach to future water supply planning.
RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends the Board adopt the technical
memorandum titled “MPWMD 2022 Water Supply and Demand Forecast”.
DISCUSSION: Much attention has been paid to the recent Regional
Housing Needs Allocation or “RHNA” numbers. How does the District’s forecast
incorporate the RHNA numbers?
The
AMBAG Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy
(MTP-SCS)[2] Table 1-3, page 1-9 shows Monterey County housing
units assumed through 2045, an increase of 26,151. The source cited is the
AMBAG Regional Growth Forecast (RGF) included as Appendix A to that document,
and the numbers are the same as in Table 9, page A-37 of the RGF[3]. Page A-36
of the RGF says there is expected 42,200 new housing units for the region by
2045, 26,200 in Monterey County. The 6th Cycle RHNA Plan[4], Table 1,
page 2 shows 33,274 total units in the region, with Monterey County’s total
adding up to 20,295 which is less than what is accounted for in the MTP-SCS and
the RGF. Therefore, the 6th Cycle RHNA Plan is within the RGF. And
as stated by AMBAG in their document: “The 2045 MTP/SCS includes an updated
RHNA. The 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Determination (RHND) from
HCD to AMBAG is 33,274 units.”[5]
EXHIBIT
17-A Technical Memorandum “MPWMD 2022 Supply and
Demand Forecast”
U:\staff\Boardpacket\2022\20220919\Action
Items\17\Item-17.docx
[1] Phase 2 Direct Testimony of Ian C. Crooks, Attachment A, 2022 Urban Water Management Plan, p.4-7: “For non-residential customers, water use will increase at the rate of employment growth forecasted by AMBAG.”
[2] AMBAG 2045 MTP/SCS, “Moving Forward Monterey Bay 2045”, Table 1-3, p. 1-9
[3] Phase 2 Direct Testimony of David J. Stoldt, Attachment H
[4] Phase 2 Direct Testimony of Ian C. Crooks, Attachment B