ITEM:

DISCUSSION ITEM

 

9.

UPDATE ON WATER DEMAND BY JURISDICTION

 

Meeting Date:
October 16, 2023

Budgeted: 

No

 

From:

David J. Stoldt

Program/

 

 

General Manager

Line Item No.:    

N/A

 

Prepared By:

David J. Stoldt

Cost Estimate:

N/A

 

General Counsel Approval:  N/A

Committee Recommendation:  N/A

CEQA Compliance:  This action does not constitute a project as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines Section 155378.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY:  The District adopted a Supply and Demand forecast at its September 19, 2022 Board meeting. The forecast was based on the 25-year Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments’ (AMBAG) 2022 Regional Growth Forecast, a 25-year model that informs the AMBAG Metropolitan Transportation Plan, and is intended to be consistent with the 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). The Adopted forecast showed an incremental need of 944 acre-feet (AF) of new supply to meet demand.

 

However, upon review of the AMBAG documents District staff discovered some disconnect between RHNA housing numbers and Regional Growth Forecast population numbers – as one example, AMBAG showed a 1,469 person increase in City of Monterey population in 25 years from 2020 to 2045, but showed a RHNA housing requirement of 3,654 housing units. Other examples abound. Further, the County – while not yet completing its 2023-2031 Draft Housing Element – has preliminarily indicated that it will attempt to locate as many as 1,966 housing units within the District’s jurisdiction, almost 1,200 of which would be along the Route 68 corridor. Jurisdictions’ draft 2023-2031 Housing Elements consistent with the 6th Cycle RHNA are due to be submitted to the State by December.

 

While the District typically relies on population rather than housing (“people use water, not houses”) water based on proposed housing stock yields slightly different outcomes. Therefore, staff also analyzed the proposed RHNA housing units by capacity for water use, mix of stock per income class, water service provided outside the District and Cal-Am, among other things.

 

Finally, because the RHNA housing assumption for the unincorporated county implied a significant change in population growth, the residential water demand was modified for that change. It may be instructive to look at other assumptions that might change based on the differences between the RHNA target and the AMBAG Regional Growth Forecast population.[1] District Staff presented preliminary analysis to the Water Demand Committee on October 2, 2023. Staff also made certain assumptions about non-residential water use as a result of job growth. Three different residential water demand forecast outcomes, added to the non-residential water demand forecast, will be discussed at the October 16, 2023 Board meeting.

 

EXHIBITS

None

 

 

U:\staff\Boardpacket\2023\20231016\Discussion Item\09\Item-9.docx


[1] Note: Jurisdictions that believe they will accomplish their housing buildout much earlier than the 25-year horizon of the AMBAG Regional Growth Forecast have not adequately answered the questions as to how that affects population growth forecasts, what happens to population after the housing is built, is there a mis-match between housing and people, etc.