Exhibit 1-D
Past Methodologies to Project Long-Term Water Needs
Different methodologies have been
used by the eight jurisdictions in the District to estimate future water needs
in the past. Most recently (between 1999
and 2003), the District undertook two studies to identify water needs on (1)
vacant legal buildable lots of record and (2) vacant buildable lots of record
on improved parcels. The legal lot
studies used standard factors to estimate water needs for each of the
jurisdictions based on vacant lots identified using aerial photos. The planning departments of each of the
jurisdictions participated in both of the studies, but the second study was not
concluded due to lack of adequate orthophotography for the unincorporated areas
of
Prior to the legal lot study,
there were at least three occasions where the District attempted to secure
long-term water needs estimates from the jurisdictions. The first effort, in
1992, involved EIP Associates preparation of population and housing projects
for the New Los Padres Project EIR/EIS.
EIP’s estimated long-term water needs were derived from Master Plan
build-out numbers and AMBAG population projections. The second effort occurred
in February 1994, when District General Manager Jim Cofer asked the
jurisdictions to provide the District with their “best estimate” of water
needs. Finally, in January 1999,
District General Manager
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