|
WATER DEMAND COMMITTEE |
||||
|
|
||||
|
DISCUSSION ITEM |
||||
|
|
||||
|
2. |
CONSIDER ADOPTION
OF UPDATED WATER DEMAND FORECASTS RELATED TO ASSOCIATION OF MONTEREY BAY AREA
GOVERNMENT 2018 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST AND REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS
ALLOCATION PLAN: 2014-2023, AND INCLUSION OF 2019 WATER YEAR |
|||
|
|
||||
|
Meeting Date: |
December 17, 2019 |
Budgeted: |
N/A |
|
|
|
||||
|
From: |
David J. Stoldt |
Program/ |
|
|
|
|
General Manager |
Line Item No.: |
N/A |
|
|
|
||||
|
Prepared By: |
David J. Stoldt |
Cost Estimate: |
N/A |
|
|
|
||||
General Counsel Approval: N/A |
||||
Committee Recommendation: N/A |
||||
|
CEQA
Compliance: Action does not constitute
a project as defined by the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines
section 15378. |
||||
SUMMARY:
At its September
16, 2019 meeting, the Board accepted a report titled Supply and Demand for Water on the Monterey
Peninsula, which was Exhibit 9-A of the Board packet. The report has now been available 3 months
and has been reviewed by members of the public, local organizations, and state
agencies. While now publicly vetted,
only three sets of comments were received: (a) California American Water
provided a comment letter October 15, 2019, (b) The Coalition of Peninsula
Businesses provided letters September 15, 2019 and September 24, 2019. All three comment letters argued that the
findings in the report contradict those of the California Public Utilities Commission, but did not provide any substantive alternate
assumptions or facts. The Districts
General Manager has encouraged the parties to provide their own forecast of
growth and/or market absorption of water demand, but they have failed to do so.
At
the November 14, 2019 Coastal Commission hearing former Pacific Grove mayor
Bill Kampe did raise two substantive issues regarding the report: (a) pre-Cease
and Desist Order (CDO) market absorption of water demand may have been constrained
in some jurisdictions due to a lack of water allocation, and (b) newstatewide focus on housing will require water.
Additionally,
subsequent to the release of the report the 2019 water year was completed,
providing an additional data point on current customer demand.
This
agenda item provides an update intended to address three items:
1. What is average current demand with
the additional water year in the data?
2. What water will be required to meet
future housing needs?
3. What might be the market absorption
of water based on an objective third-party growth
forecast?
As
a result, certain figures or tables from the September 2019 Supply and Demand for Water on the Monterey
Peninsula report were updated and included as Exhibit 2-A, attached.
RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended the Committee adopt the revisions to the September
report and forward it to the Board for adoption.
DISCUSSION:
Current
Demand: The 2019 water year showed actual demand
(production for customer service) of 9,738 AF (acre-feet), a decline of almost
300 AF from 2018. As a result, the
recent 3-year and 5-year averages are within 8 AF of each other, as shown in
the table below:
|
Period |
Amount |
Difference to CPUC/Cal-Am # |
|
CPUC/Cal-Am Assumption |
12,350 |
|
|
10-Year Average - Actual |
10,863 |
1,487 |
|
5-Year Average - Actual |
9,825 |
2,525 |
|
3-Year Average - Actual |
9,817 |
2,533 |
Water
for Housing: Exhibit
2-E shows the Association of Monterey Bay
Area Governments (AMBAG) Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA.) Over the next twenty years, using two similar
10-year RHNA allocations, total water required for housing in the six Peninsula
cities is 380 AF over twenty years, or 395 405 AF including an estimate for
unincorporated County. See Exhibit 2-D. The RHNA is expected to be updated soon and
the allocation could change.
The
water for housing can be thought of as captured within the population growth
component of the third-party growth forecast discussed below.
Water
to meet an objective third-party growth forecast:
Rather than to rely on pre-CDO absorption of water demand or alternative
theoretical future demand scenarios, as was done in the September report, it is
instructive to instead look at a regional growth forecast by an objective
third-party. Here we evaluated AMBAGs
2018 Regional Growth Forecast (see Exhibit
2-C), specifically the subregional
population forecast as a proxy for residential water demand, and the subregional employment forecast, using job growth as a
proxy for commercial water demand.
(Certainly, other factors could be considered.) Using this methodology, the total water
demand increase in the 20 year study period is 984 AF
or 49.2 AFY (see Exhibit 2-B.)
Applying the 49.2 AFY linearly across a 30-year horizon results in the
revised Figure 3, shown in Exhibit 2-A.
EXHIBITS
2-A Supply and Demand for Water on the
Monterey Peninsula Revisions
2-B Water Required to Meet AMBAG 2018
Regional Growth Forecast
2-C AMBAG 2018 Regional Growth Forecast
Table 7 and Table 8
2-D Water Required to Meet AMBAG
Regional Housing Needs Allocation Plan: 2014-2023
2-E AMBAG Regional Housing Needs
Allocation Plan: 2014-2023 Page 15
U:\staff\Board_Committees\WaterDemand\2019\20191217\02\Item-2.docx