ITEM:		ACTION ITEMS
19.	RECEIVE AND CONFIRM WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR PERIOD OF MAY 1, 2011 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2012
Meeting Date:			May 16, 2011	Budgeted:	N/A
From:			Darby Fuerst,	Program/	N/A
			General Manager	Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			Darby Fuerst	Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Review: N/A
Committee Recommendation: N/A
CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Regulation X of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District (District) Rules and Regulations requires that a water supply summary forecast report be compiled annually to analyze the status of water supply and demand within the District. This report quantifies rainfall, runoff, and storage conditions within the District as of May 1, 2011, and forecasts the amount of water that will be available for use during the upcoming water year.

Physical Water Availability: As of May 1, 2011, usable water storage within the Monterey Peninsula Water Resource System (MPWRS) totaled 31,550 acre-feet or 84% of maximum storage capacity. A map of the MPWRS is included as Exhibit 19-A. A breakdown of total storage by reservoir and aquifer is shown in Exhibit 19-B. As shown, usable reservoir storage totals 1,700 acre-feet and usable aquifer storage totals 29,850 acre-feet. Note that the storage summary does not include usable storage in the Northern Inland and Laguna Seca Subareas of the Seaside Groundwater Basin. In addition, a summary of other water-supply related conditions within the MPWRS -- rainfall, runoff, and number of adult steelhead recorded at San Clemente Dam, and California American Water (Cal-Am) monthly diversions from the Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins relative to limits set by the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and Court -- are shown in Exhibit 19-C and 19-D.

The amount of carryover storage that is needed to meet the projected water needs within the District for the remainder of Water Year (WY) 2011 and all of WY 2012 is shown in Exhibit 19-E. These projections include the water needs of both Cal-Am customers and non Cal-Am water users within the District who rely on water from the MPWRS. As shown, the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2011 is 8,982 acre-feet. Similarly, the projected demand for WY 2012 is 16,170 acre-feet. This projection is based on the maximum annual production amount for the Cal-Am main system from the Carmel River Basin directed by the SWRCB in Order WR 2009-0060 (10,429 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 10,308 acre-feet in WY 2012), the maximum annual production amount for Cal-Am from the Seaside Groundwater Basin specified by the Court as a result of the Seaside Basin adjudication and amended by the Seaside Watermaster on December 1, 2010 (3,448 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 2,816 acre-feet in WY 2012), and the maximum production amount for non Cal-Am users in the MPWRS specified in the District’s Water Allocation Program (3,046 acre-feet).

As shown in Exhibit 19-E, the total amount of water needed to meet the projected water demand for the remainder of WY 2011 and all of WY 2012 is 25,152 acre-feet. Given the current usable storage estimate of 31,550 acre-feet, there is sufficient stored water in the MPWRS to meet the projected water needs for the remainder of WY 2011 and begin WY 2012 with a full year’s supply in reserve. This is consistent with the District drought protection goal approved by the Board in August 1993.

It should also be noted that this approach is conservative in that it is based entirely on storage and does not include any allowance for surface and subsurface inflows that are expected to occur. Therefore, based on the physical availability of water, no mandatory water demand reductions, i.e., rationing actions, are required at this time. It should be noted, however, that this analysis does not incorporate environmental considerations such as effects on riparian and aquatic resources or regulatory restrictions.

Note that all water users within the District are presently under Stage 1 Water Conservation which prohibits water waste and all non-essential uses of water.

Community Water Demand: For WY 2011, as of May 1, 2011, Cal-Am had produced 6,304 acre-feet of water from its sources in the MPWRS to serve its customers. This amount of production is 510 acre-feet under the year-to-date at month-end production target (6,814 acre-feet) that had been set for Cal-Am based on SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060 and the Seaside Groundwater Basin adjudication decision.

MPWRS Yield: It should be noted that this forecast is based on an assumption that Cal-Am can produce up to 13,877 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 13,124 acre-feet in WY 2012 from its sources in the MPWRS to serve its customers. This limit is based on the maximum amounts that Cal-Am is allowed to produce from the Carmel River Basin (10,429 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 10,308 acre-feet in WY 2012) under SWRCB Order WR 2009-0060 and the maximum amounts that Cal-Am is allowed to produce from the Coastal Subareas of the Seaside Basin (3,202 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 2,669 acre-feet in WY 2012) and from the Laguna Seca Subarea of the Seaside Basin (246 acre-feet in WY 2011 and 147 acre-feet in WY 2012) pursuant to the Seaside Basin adjudication decision (California American Water v. City of Seaside, Monterey County Superior Court No. M 66343). Note that Cal-Am is allowed to produce an additional 115 acre-feet from the Coastal Subareas of the Seaside Basin in WY 2011 because of “carryover credits” that it accrued in WY 2010. No carryover is assumed for WY 2012.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should receive the water supply forecast for the May 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012 period.

IMPACTS ON STAFF/RESOURCES: District staff currently tracks and reports on water production and water supply conditions on a monthly basis; no additional impacts are anticipated related to this item.

EXHIBITS

19-A Map of the MPWRS

19-B MPWRS Water Storage Conditions

19-C MPWMD Water Supply Status -- May 1, 2011

19-D Monthly Cal-Am Diversions from Carmel River and Seaside Groundwater Basins

19-E Derivation of Water Rationing Triggers for the MPWRS for WY 2011

U:\staff\word\boardpacket\2011\20110516\ActionItems\19\item19.docx